Poker Forums -> Another Way To Calculate Outs

Poker Forums -> Another Way To Calculate Outs: "Another Way To Calculate Outs, For the mathmaticly impaired :)" There is an easier way to figure out the chances of making a given hand without having to memorize long lists of numbers for all the possible hands. It is important to note, though, it isn't 100 percent accurate, but close enough... within 1-2% For example, if you hold two suited cards in your hand and you flop another two, giving you a four-flush with two cards to come: 1. You must determine the number of “outs” that you have – that is, the number of cards left that will make your hand. If you have four to the flush – that is, four of the 13 of your suit – there are nine cards remaining somewhere (either in the deck or in other players’ hands) that will make your hand. 2. Multiply your “out” cards on the flop (nine) by four. That gives you 36, or 36 percent. So, after the flop, you have about a 36 percent chance of making the flush. The actual number is 34.97 percent, so this easy method has given you a number that’s within 1.03 percentage points of the actual number. That’s fairly close for an answer that came as easily as that. Now, let’s look at the turn card. It’s a blank. Now you still have nine outs, but with only one card to come, you multiply your outs by two and you get 18, or 18 percent. The actual number is 19.57 percent, so you are within 1.57 percentage points of being right on target. As a novice player, don’t these “approximate” numbers give you a lot of information? Try this... You flop a pair. What are the chances that you will make at least three of a kind? You have two outs with two cards to come. Two times four equals eight, so your chances of making trips are about 8 percent. The actual number? 8.42 percent! That’s a pretty good estimate for such an easy task. And with one card to come, multiply that same number of outs (two) by two and you get four, or 4 percent, which is close to the actual number of 4.35 percent. Remember, with two cards to come, multiply the number of cards that will make your hand by four; with one card to come, multiply by two. It is also important to note that when you figure your outs, there may be other cards that can win for you. For example: if you flop a flush draw and hold A-K, you may want to add the three remaining aces and three remaining kings to count of “out” cards if you think that pairing one of these cards could win the pot for you. There are many things that can be learned with this system, and if you practice when you are not involved in the throes of battle, you will learn to use this tool quickly and effortlessly. Above was taken from Card Player Magazine by Jan Fisher